tl;dr – Spoiler alert: Nostradamus, I am not.
At the beginning of the year, I published Blackbeard’s 2025 Points & Miles Crystal Ball, a rundown of some things I thought might transpire in the world of points and miles, hotel and airline loyalty, credit cards, and the travel industry in general. I swung for the fences and unfortunately, came up empty on most items. That said, I was right on the money for a few things. Let’s review!
Hotels
Marriott
My prediction: Marriott will update the Bonvoy program to allow members to share and transfer award certificates – specifically, free night certificates, and Night Upgrade Awards. You know, to be more like Hyatt’s Milestone Awards?
Result: Wrong. The awards are still nontransferable.
IHG
My prediction: IHG will relaunch and improve its credit cards with Chase.
Result: Nope.
Hyatt
My prediction: Hyatt reworks the point values for redemptions with Mr. & Mrs. Smith Hotels. Hyatt acquires another luxury brand.
Result: Wrong on both accounts. While Hyatt did recently finalize its acquisition of Playa Hotels (and then promptly sold the assets) it did not acquire another luxury brand this year. And of course, sigh, Mr & Mrs Smith redemptions rates are still terrible.
Hilton
My prediction: Hilton will acquire a luxury brand.
Result: Wrong. That said, Hilton is making a concerted effort to build out its LXR Hotels and Resorts line.
Accor
My prediction: Accor will make a big acquisition to more deeply embed itself in the US market.
Result: Wrong.
Airlines
Alaska
My prediction: Alaska will change its stopover rules to allow stopovers on mixed-partner itineraries, similar to Air Canada’s Aeroplan
Result: Nope. You’re still limited to one partner!
American
My prediction: Will restore a direct transfer relationship with Citi.
Result: Huzzah! I got this one right on the money!
Delta
My prediction: Delta increases the earn rates on Delta Stays.
Result: I don’t think this happened. Rove Miles had a moment but seems to have plateaued its earning rates.
Southwest
My prediction: Southwest’s stock would grow in Q3.
Result: Ching Ching! Southwest is up 27.96% in the last 6 months. That ole private equity treatment will get ya right – I tell you.
I’m still not flying them!
United
My prediction: United would stop beating up its passengers.
Result: I was right! As it turned out, passengers were the ones serving up rights and left to United Airlines employees this year.
Banks
American Express
My prediction: Amex would discontinue the Green Card.
Result: Though some changes were made to the Green Card (it lost the LoungeBuddy credit in early 2025 and has been revamped to function more like a traditional credit card, not a charge card), the Green Card is still alive.
Citi
My prediction: Citi adds Hyatt as a transfer partner.
Result: Nope!
Chase
My prediction: Chase would relaunch its Virgin Atlantic credit card in the US.
Result: A swing and a miss!
Capital One
My prediction: Capital One would add All Nippon Airways (ANA) as a transfer partner.
Result: Nope!
Bilt
My prediction: Bilt’s demise.
Result: Jokes on me. From all reports, Bilt appears to be doing well and is set to revamp its credit card line in 2026.
Wells Fargo
My prediction: Wells Fargo would launch two co-branded travel cards, one with an airline (Avelo or Breeze) and one with Accor.
Result: I was waaaaay off. Wells Fargo is asleep at the travel game wheel.
Oh well! Better luck in 2026.
