The Alaska / Hawaiian Merger - The Part that Isn't Talked About Enough - Oneworld to Rule the Pacific

A few months ago, I wrote about the impending marriage of Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines after the DOJ's decision not to contest the merger. Since then, the deal has officially closed, and Alaska Air Group has come out the gate hot with several announcements as part of its three-year strategic plan. First, I was slightly disappointed in the lack of 'synergy' drops in Alaska's previous press releases surrounding the Hawaiian deal. I'm pleased that CEO Ben Minicucci and the team remembered all the struggling MBAs and shareholders out there, as the synergies are out the roof in this latest one, so let's rejoice.

As far as these announcements go, Alaska revealed that it will be launching a new global gateway from Seattle with plans to expand to at least 12 international destinations by 2030. The expansion will commence in 2025 with two nonstop routes to Tokyo Narita (NRT) and Seoul Incheon (ICN) and a new premium credit card launch (sign up for the waitlist for a free 5000 miles!). These are all fascinating developments and well worth deep dives in their own right. However, ever since the news of the potential merger, I've been more excited about what this might mean for enhancing travel to a somewhat hard-to-get part of the world - the Oneworld alliance will rule the South Pacific. In this piece, I wanted to discuss the potential impact this merger, alongside other airline developments, may have on Oneworld alliance routing. To do so, I'll need to quickly rehash two of my favorite trips.

South Pacific Travels

In 2017, after getting married courthouse-style, Mrs. Blackbeard and I set out on a six-week honeymoon spread throughout Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. In the South Pacific portion of the trip, we pit-stopped at beautiful islands like Samoa, The Cook Islands - both Aitutaki and Raratonga, and Polynesia (Maupiti, Tahiti, Bora Bora, and Huahine). As magical as this was, we left a lot of skin on the bone, having wanted to check out places like the Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, and Tonga.

A few years later, we spent a few weeks in Fiji (Tauveni, Mamanuca, Yasawa) and Vanuatu (Efate and Espiritu Santo). At some point, I'll do throwback reviews of these trips, but between the beautiful water, landscapes, food, laidback approach to life, and intrepidness, these excursions make up some of my most memorable travel experiences. 

As was the case then, and as it is now, some of these islands are challenging to get to. Take Samoa, for instance. If you're coming from North America, you're likely flying in after a stop in Auckland, Australia (Sydney or Brisbane), or Honolulu. Those options are not bad, but you could structure a much more efficient (and fun) itinerary involving Australia or New Zealand if you could stop in the South Pacific before heading to those countries.

What's Possible in the Post-Merger World

And this brings me to my point. With the Alaska Hawaiian merger closed and the recent news that Fiji Airways will become a full-fledged member of the Oneworld Alliance in 2025, I'm excited about the possibility of single-reservation itineraries that allow passengers to have built-in island hops throughout the South Pacific as they cross the Pacific Ocean. These islands - across Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia are home to some of the richest cultures in the world, and my hope is that more direct flights, both to and within this part of the world, will allow more folks to experience them, respectfully, of course. 

Let's take a look at what this looks like. Below, you'll see the proposed post-merger Alaska Hawaiian route map:

I've circled a few destinations - Papeete, French Polynesia (PPT), Rarotonga, Cook Islands (RAR), and Pago Pago, American Samoa (PPG). 

Here's the Fiji Airways route map.

Notice anything? There's not a ton of overlap within the South Pacific island groups. While Nadi (NAN) and Honolulu (HNL) are the hubs for each airline and share many of the same destinations on the Asian, North American, and Oceanic mainlands, there's almost no crossover within the island. It feels eerily like a strategic choice between two quasi-competitors. Two quasi-competitors that are soon to be alliance mates. Let's revisit that old word - synergy. Let's take what we each do best and put it together to make something great. Put these two maps together; you will have covered almost every South Pacific island destination. Codeshares abound. Indeed, we are the (one)world; we are the children.

Why does this matter? Why is this exciting? Again - one reservation itinerary with the possibility for a multitude of fun stops. Imagine visiting Hawaii, Fiji, and the blue holes of Vanuatu as you travel from Vancouver to the Gold Coast of Australia.

Kiribati on Alaska miles? Sure, if you're a WWII Pacific Theatre nostalgia fan, have at it.

Why stop there? Who said your pitstops had to be on the way to Australia? What about Japan? Some sun (Honolulu), fun (French Polynesia), more sun and fun (Fiji), then tonkatsu (Japan)? I'm sold. 

It feels even more accurate when you consider that there's already a precedent for this. Long-term points and miles fans know Alaska Airlines has allowed free stopovers on one-way award tickets for years. A popular use of this deal has been to book Fiji Airways business class (using Alaska miles) to fly from LAX or SJO (and now DFW?) to Australia, with a stopover in Fiji (NAN) for up to 14 days. Traditionally, Alaska has not allowed mixed partner itineraries for award bookings (you must fly on one carrier), but I think we'll see more flexibility going forward. After all, merging with Hawaiian and barking about Seattle being a global hub would suggest you're in the big leagues now. Well, you gotta start doing 'big league' things.

It makes even more sense when you examine the list of destinations both Hawaiian Airlines and Fiji Airways service and used to service. Fiji used to have a service to Pago Pago, which has since been terminated, but Hawaiian still flies there. Hawaiian used to fly to Samoa, Beijing, and Taipei—intriguing destinations for an airline that is hoping to 'drive double-digit margins of 11-13% by 2027'—all of which are currently serviced by Fiji Airways. 

Finally, let's remember that there are existing heavy hitters in the Oneworld alliance. Qantas's robust route map invites many possibilities. The stark decrease in Japan Airlines destinations over the years has me thinking about quite the fun comeback story. 

Honestly, this is reminiscent of Air Canada's super-flexible redemption sweet spots, where you can essentially build around-the-world trips in business class, by stitching together two one-way flights, and a slew of stopovers for less than 220,000 Aeroplan points. Admittedly, stopovers with Oneworld would work differently - Aeroplan's redemption charts are zoned into four world regions - but still, I'm getting similar vibes.

Conclusion

If you've made it this far, I wanted to thank you by giving some rapid-fire hot-take predictions. Here are some developments I expect we'll see in the post-merger/post-Fiji-integrated world over the next few years:

• Alaska Air Group will reestablish direct routes from Honolulu to Guam and the Mariana Islands, with continuing service to Japan or Korea, saving us all from United Airlines.
• Alaska Air Group will announce direct service to French Polynesia, providing alternative options to Air Tahiti, French Bee, and Air France.
• Fiji Airways will establish direct service to Papeete, providing an Oneworld codeshare-able route between those island groups.
• Alaska Air Group will announce direct service to the Cook Islands, filling the gap vacated by Air New Zealand's quasi-fifth freedom route - LAX to RAR.
• Starlux comes through on its threats (you won't!) to join the Oneworld party in late 2025, thereby bringing Taipei into the fray as an alternative origin or ending point for Transpacific journeys.

Would love to hear any thoughts in the comments!