The List No One Asked For: Blackbeard's Predictions for the World of Points, Miles, Loyalty, and Travel in 2025

Below, I've listed some predictions on what we'll see in 2025. Admittedly, some of these are nothing more than hopeful hot takes - improvements I've wanted specific programs to make for us travelers -, but they are (at least, I think) based somewhat in reality. Without further adieu:

Hotels

My big-picture prediction for the core four hotel chains (and Accor) is that 2025 will be a year of shopping. I project there will be at least two or three significant acquisitions, and I'm specifically looking at three players - Hyatt, Accor, and Hilton. Why? In the case of Hyatt and Accor, these two chains have the most cash on hand and have the most polished growth plans that invite strategic acquisitions. Hilton's cash may not be as free-flowing, but I think there's still the strategic need and enough loot to do something. I have a few chains in mind that might serve as the merchandise, but I'll save those for future posts. 

Marriott

In an effort to match Hyatt, Marriott will update the Bonvoy program to allow members to share and transfer award certificates - specifically free night certificates, and Night Upgrade Awards. This one shouldn't be too hard to do and could have an outsized impact on Bonvoy members. When chatting with the manager at Leopard Sands last July, I learned there are almost 300 million Bonvoy members worldwide. It's a safe bet that some members who can't use their certificates before they expire might enjoy sharing them with family or friends. Hyatt offers more types of certificates frequently and has no problem making transferring or gifting certificates work. Furthermore, Marriott already allows the transfer and gifting of reward points, so this would be a natural evolution of the Bonvoy loyalty program. 

IHG

IHG will relaunch and improve credit cards with Chase. I can't remember the last time I stayed at an IHG property, so admittedly, I won't pretend to be a champion of the program. However, with a new long-term agreement, Chase and IHG may agree there's space for innovation.

Hyatt

Two predictions here since the first one is a given. Hyatt reworks the point values for redemptions with Mr. & Mrs. Smith Hotels (MMS) as more MMS properties join the Hyatt platform. This has to be the case, as the partnership has been more or less useless. Leadership from both sides - MMS and Hyatt- know this too and are expecting significant changes soon. 

Hyatt continues its shopping spree by purchasing a boutique soft or luxury brand. With $1.13 billion cash on hand and a mission to win the wealth-transfer-traveler, Hyatt will continue acquiring shenanigans this year. 

Hilton

Feeling the pressure to solidify the high end of its portfolio (and keep pace with Hyatt and Marriott), Hilton will move to acquire a luxury brand. This brand will sit alongside the Waldorf-Astoria and above the Conrad in its global portfolio.

Accor

Accor makes a significant investment in the North American market, likely through acquisitions to engender itself to North American-based travelers while offering its existing member base more options to stay in the brand while traveling to the US, Central America, and the Caribbean. I've recently noticed that Accor has been taking tiny steps to learn more about North American consumers relatively cost-effectively. One example is the recent status match it offered through Bilt's January 2025 Rent Day Promotion. Accor will need to do a major revamp of its loyalty program to make inroads with more North American travelers. The best time to do this might be when other monumental changes are afoot, like a big acquisition that enhances the global portfolio, putting more properties closer to the customers Accor seeks to attract.

Airlines 

Alaska

Alaska will change its stopover rules to allow stopovers on mixed-partner itineraries, similar to Air Canada's Aeroplan. I reference this as part of this larger piece on the now-complete Alaska-Hawaiian merger. This will greatly enhance cross-Pacific journeys for Oneworld alliance travelers.

American Airlines

Citi recently became the sole issuer of AA cards, which makes it likely that a direct points transfer relationship is back on the table (the companies used to have one in the past). This may be further enhanced with the launch of a premium Citi card (with transferable ThankYou points), giving AAdvantage members another way to stockpile points.

Delta

Delta embeds itself further into the loyalty point, excuse me, MQD game 😉, increasing the earn rate with Delta Stays (Advantage Hotels equivalent) and allowing dollars spent through Skymiles Shopping to count towards your MQD totals.

Southwest

Following its decision to end open seating and implement its first two red-eye flights, Southwest will see its stock grow amid consumer optimism in Q3 of 2025, shortly after the first seats with assigned seating go on sale. Southwest will also reveal plans for more red-eye flights and 

United Airlines

United Airlines will formally agree to stop beating up passengers. This is the prediction I'm least confident in, but I'll believe it when I see it. 

Banks

American Express

Discontinues the Green Card. The writing was on the wall, along with the revamp of its Gold Card and higher annual fee. A legend gone but not forgotten.

Citi

Citi adds Hyatt as a transfer partner. Citi feels like it's chomping to get back into the big leagues of the points and miles game, so I see the inking of a partnership with Hyatt as a big splash. This might also help Hyatt make sense of its points and values once it fully incorporates Mr. & Mrs. Smith. A new (long-rumored) premium card offering from Citi will finally come to market in 2025.

Chase

From the top of the key, Virgin Atlantic Credit Card relaunches its stateside credit card, with Chase, allowing US customers a way to accrue points with the loyalty program once again. Chase will then be a credit card partner to at least one member of all three major international airline alliances.

Capital One

Capital One visits the land of the rising sun and adds All Nippon Airways (ANA) as a transfer partner. 

Bilt

In 2025, Bilt will falter and ultimately be acquired for pennies on the dollar. The story of Bilt is not unlike many high-flying consumer startups - bust out the gate riding a horse named 'growth at all costs' and offer up tons of awesome freebies to consumers to pad that sign-up rate. We've long left the land of wild transfer bonuses as part of Bilt's Rent Day Promotions, and I think this 'reigning in' is a sign that the company is fighting to get its money right. It's been reported that Bilt is burning cash at an unsustainable rate and has a tenuous relationship with its financial partners. Bilt sunset its credit card built with Evolve Bank and consumers seeking to keep their relationship need to open up a new card backed by Wells Fargo. I'm calling it - the roof caves in on Bilt in 2025. 

Wells Fargo

Ugh. I'm convinced that Wells Fargo and United Airlines were the 1980s-style bullies at Points and Miles High, the same types that would steal lunch money and put people in lockers. With that said, Wells Fargo will launch two co-branded credit cards next year, one with an airline and one with a hotel chain. The airline will be Avelo Airlines. This prediction goes a step further. Avelo Airlines or Breeze will assume the pieces that emerge from the Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy. I bet that it is Avelo, and as a result, the larger entity is prime for the co-branded treatment (assuming Spirit's existing card agreements don't survive Chapter 11). The hotel will be Accor. The existing relationship is there via Bilt (they are a transfer partner to Bilt Rewards). As part of that 'Great North American Push' I referenced above, Accor will also enter the North American points and miles credit card game.

That's it. To see how I did, be sure to set a calendar reminder for January 1, 2026. And of course, I'd love to hear YOUR predictions in the comments.

Okay—I'm out!